Modelling the global endemicity and burden of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

MAP produces high-resolution estimates of Plasmodium falciparum prevalence, incidence, and mortality. To produce these estimates, we apply geostatistical models to response datasets consisting of PR points and routine surveillance reports, and a rich set of geospatial covariates that characterise habitat for Anopheles mosquitos that spread the disease. The maps cover all malaria-endemic countries and are produced annually from year 2000 at a 5×5 km resolution. The maps are summarised by administrative units to produce burden estimates that contribute to the World Malaria Report (WHO) and the Global Burden of Disease (IHME) project.


Annual model estimates of the malaria risk landscape and burden of the disease at different geographic scales can be found here. High resolution maps can be explored here.


This work was done in collaboration with:

  • The Institute for Disease Modelling, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Section of Epidemiology, Department of Public Health, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
  • Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, UK
  • Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • World Health Organisation, Geneva, Switzerland